If money were free and fantasies were reality, then the best possible Nats team for 2019 and far beyond almost certainly would be built around an outfield of Harper in right field with Victor Robles in center and Juan Soto in left.[Bryce Harper is playing all-star host, as everyone asks how much longer he’ll play in D.C.]
Because the Lerners, who own the team, are multibillionaires, they can — in theory and up to a point — view money as free and turn such fantasies into fact.
The family, including patriarch Ted and wife Annette, dotes on Harper personally, almost like a grandson, and understands that a franchise can wait decades to get a multigeneration team symbol. In the free agent era, just four players have hit 400 home runs and played their entire careers with the same team: Mike Schmidt , Chipper Jones , Jeff Bagwell and Cal Ripken Jr. Harper could be another one.
However, this All-Star Game likely will be played in an inescapable swirl of conjecture about Harper: his .213 batting average entering Thursday on a .500 team, his future as he plays out his walk year in what may become a period of salary stagnation or even contraction.[How to fix baseball? Washington Post readers have a few suggestions.]
In addition to the normal complex story lines that surround the biggest free agent stars, this Nats tale has a unique twist. Unlike any previous player who might set a new ceiling for contracts, Harper plays for a team that, partly as precaution and partly through good scouting and development, almost can replace him and then use all that money to sign other free agents and seek extensions with current players, such as Anthony Rendon.
If Harper leaves D.C., the Nats still would have a talented but inexpensive outfield of Soto, Robles and Adam Eaton (.391 on-base percentage as a Nat) for a combined $32 million in 2019, 2020 and 2021 — about $11 million per year for an entire quality outfield. Soto and Robles would remain under Nats control through 2024.
That’s why it’s hard to envision the Nats locking up perhaps 10 times that much future payroll in the kind of from-here-to-eternity contract that Harper may get in Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia or Chicago.
In the next week, don’t expect to see temperate evaluations when it comes to Harper’s value. But that’s what we should seek.
First, Harper’s batting average is an anomaly caused by bad luck on batting average on balls in play — the second lowest in the National League at .224 vs. .356 last season. If his BABIP were at his career level (.314), his average would be near his .278 career mark, too.Agent Scott Boras says Harper is afflicted by “discriminatory” shifts. Please. Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman pulls the ball slightly more than Harper, hits to left field slightly less and faces tons of shifts, too — and his BABIP is .360. Yes, just like Harper’s last year. Boras would rather use big words inappropriately than say: “Please feel sorry for my soon-to-be-richer-than-Croesus client. He’s hitting ’em where they are.”
Also, Harper, who’s on pace for 38 homers, does not suffer from being walked too much. His current walk rate is 19.5 percent. When he was MVP in 2015, it was 19.0.[Fancy Stats: Bryce Harper’s awful batting average doesn’t mean he’s an undeserving all-star]
Boras says pitchers are “starving Harper out of the zone.” Wrong. From 2001 to 2004, Barry Bonds was walked (or was hit by a pitch) 198 times per season yet averaged 52 home runs and won all four NL MVP awards. You can starve only yourself.
The only thing wrong with Bryce — it’s not much and probably not predictive of his future — is that he has caught a strikeout bug: 24.2 percent whiffs, up from his career rate of 20.8. But he fanned 26.3 percent of the time in 2014. The reason is correctible. Look at the percentage of pitches thrown inside the strike zone to Harper (second fewest in the NL) and his lack of ability to make contact when he chases outside the zone (second worst in the NL). Harper just needs to stop chasing. Listen to Babe Ruth on hitting: “Pick a good one and sock it.” Note the word “good.”
Harper is not always an amazing hitter. In four of his previous six seasons, he has hit between .243 and .274 with an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of .768 to .854. That’s merely quite good. Analytics grade him as a slightly above-average base runner but a slightly below-average defender. It’s Harper’s Total Package — including his huge numbers in 2015 and 2017 — that elevates his overall value and provides us dazzling memories.
FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement rates Harper as the 17th-best player in MLB in the past five years since he turned 21. I would say more like 10th. That site also estimates he has produced $220.5 million of value over his 6 1/2 seasons, or $34 million per full year. Moving forward, that’s probably right — for some team but probably not for the Nats, who are loaded with young outfielders.
Even having an “off” season, Harper is one of the eight best young players in MLB. If you asked me to pick among players ages 23 to 26 for the next seven years — Mike Trout, Carlos Correa, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Aaron Judge, Kris Bryant or Harper — I would just say, “After Trout, you pick.” And Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve and Freeman are just 27, 28 and 28.
Disregard Harper’s .167 July or his four strikeouts and a error Tuesday. With normal health, he likely will be a Hall of Famer. Also, day after day, he has contributed more than anyone to the Nats in their past 1,000-plus games, during which they have had the second-most regular season wins in baseball.[Thomas Boswell: 49 years after D.C. last hosted, MLB All-Star Game remains a ‘You Had to Be There’ experience]
So Harper is a winner — though, as usual with him, with an asterisk. Unless this season changes trajectory fast, Harper also will play on his seventh straight talented team that never got past Oct. 13. Playoff OPS: .801. Not bad.
In baseball, one man doesn’t make a champion or even a final four team, as Trout has proved clearly. You want Harper. But you can do without him.
Wednesday’s Nats game could be watched only on Facebook, which asked its audience (shock): “Where will Bryce Harper sign this offseason and why?”
If you gave Ted Lerner and Harper truth serum, they couldn’t answer that today. What if Harper and the Nats finish this season as flops and free agent prices are in the dumpster in January? What if the Bryce-led Nats pull a Capitals comeback?
The most likely outcomes are between those extremes. In those scenarios, the Nats probably have better team-building options than going hard after Harper. But baseball loves to shatter crystal balls.
That’s why, as the All-Star Game arrives and the rest of baseball wants to speculate, Washington should maintain its focus — on Harper, one of the most exciting sports stars in the history of the city.
The present moment is where our pleasure always lives. Next week, that’s in the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game. Harper loves such stages. What a seven-year thrill he has been for Washington baseball. And D.C. has been good to him.
Don’t ask for the moon while we still have the star.For more by Thomas Boswell, visit washingtonpost.com/boswell.